Real Estate: Finally a good investment?

The housing market still looks pretty bleak:  There were a record 1 million foreclosures last year, home prices are still falling in many regions, and the number of "underwater" properties is at a record high.

And things don't look much better in other areas of real estate. The number of construction jobs continues to decline, even as other parts of the economy have added jobs. And mortgage rates have moved higher as long-term Treasury yields have backed up during the past few months.

Basically, the real estate market remains a mess.

Real estate encompasses a wide range of markets – homes, apartments, hospitals, office buildings, strip malls, dormitories and other properties. But for our purposes, let's focus on residential real estate, or homes. Here are four reasons to think residential real estate might represent a bargain – with one big caveat.


Keep in Mind:


• Everyone hates homes - When the housing market is in the doldrums, people tend to avoid thinking about the value of their home.  Sellers complain they’re not getting offers and buyers bemoan the strict lending requirements.  However, prospective buyers should be contrarian and take advantage of a down housing market.
• Smart people are buying real estate - A prominent hedge-fund manager said in a speech last fall:  “If you don’t own a home, buy one.  If you own a home, buy another one, and if you own two homes, buy a third and lend your relatives the money to buy a home.”  He believes that interest rates and home prices will rise this year, so real estate bargains won’t last much longer.
• Real estate performs well during inflation – Convention says Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, commodities, and real estate do well in an inflationary environment.  Real estate performed well during the period in the 1970s, when persistent inflation and high unemployment occurred.
• Demand may be coming back - Job creation and getting people employed are the two major factors in the housing rebound.  There’s much debate about when the job market will recovery.  Optimists say the recovery will happen this year, while pessimists say it won’t happen for several years.

Read the full story

http://www.smartmoney.com/personal-finance/real-estate/-1295050347411/

When will housing come back in California? Five experts offer their views

Although the steep decline of home prices in California ended in spring 2009, the weakness in the housing market after the expiration of federal tax credits for home buyers last year has led to some speculation as to whether the recovery is sustainable. Five experts, including Leslie Appleton-Young, the chief economist for the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®, were asked to provide their view on the state of real estate and what they think is needed to get the housing market moving again.

KEEP THIS IN MIND

• In terms of home prices, the experts differed slightly with the majority predicting that home prices will remain flat throughout 2011. Ms. Appleton-Young predicts home prices will rise 2 percent this year, while a foreclosure expert predicts housing prices to decline 5 percent in 2011.

• According to Ms. Appleton-Young, there is little chance of home prices returning to their previous peak levels anytime soon. "We are in a slow-moving recovery with prices stabilized at the moderate and low end," she said. "We are still seeing price attrition and price softening at the upper ends of the market."

• California’s recovery will hinge on location, according to Richard Green, director of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate. Areas between El Centro and Sacramento likely will not see a return to peak prices for a long time. However, places like La Jolla, Laguna, Huntington Beach, Atherton, Palo Alto, the city of San Francisco, and Marin County could experience a return to their peak prices within the next five years, according to Mr. Green.

• Foreclosure expert Bruce Norris of the Norris Group believes the market is being artificially boosted by government programs and is set to fall further this year. Mr. Norris believes the demand for housing is most-needed for a sustainable recovery.

• California’s coastal markets will make a return once the job market improves, according to Emile Haddad, chief executive at FivePoint Communities Inc. In turn, that will lift consumer confidence. However, California’s inland areas are more likely to lag behind, and builders will have to reconsider the kind of product they offer in certain places.