When will housing come back in California? Five experts offer their views

Although the steep decline of home prices in California ended in spring 2009, the weakness in the housing market after the expiration of federal tax credits for home buyers last year has led to some speculation as to whether the recovery is sustainable. Five experts, including Leslie Appleton-Young, the chief economist for the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®, were asked to provide their view on the state of real estate and what they think is needed to get the housing market moving again.

KEEP THIS IN MIND

• In terms of home prices, the experts differed slightly with the majority predicting that home prices will remain flat throughout 2011. Ms. Appleton-Young predicts home prices will rise 2 percent this year, while a foreclosure expert predicts housing prices to decline 5 percent in 2011.

• According to Ms. Appleton-Young, there is little chance of home prices returning to their previous peak levels anytime soon. "We are in a slow-moving recovery with prices stabilized at the moderate and low end," she said. "We are still seeing price attrition and price softening at the upper ends of the market."

• California’s recovery will hinge on location, according to Richard Green, director of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate. Areas between El Centro and Sacramento likely will not see a return to peak prices for a long time. However, places like La Jolla, Laguna, Huntington Beach, Atherton, Palo Alto, the city of San Francisco, and Marin County could experience a return to their peak prices within the next five years, according to Mr. Green.

• Foreclosure expert Bruce Norris of the Norris Group believes the market is being artificially boosted by government programs and is set to fall further this year. Mr. Norris believes the demand for housing is most-needed for a sustainable recovery.

• California’s coastal markets will make a return once the job market improves, according to Emile Haddad, chief executive at FivePoint Communities Inc. In turn, that will lift consumer confidence. However, California’s inland areas are more likely to lag behind, and builders will have to reconsider the kind of product they offer in certain places.

November Home Sales Rose in California

California home sales rose in November compared with October, but were down from the previous year, according to data from the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS. The statewide median price declined from both the previous month and previous year.

KEEP THIS IN MIND

• The median price of an existing, single-family detached home sold in California fell below the $300,000 mark for the first time since February. The November 2010 median price was $296,820, down 2.4 percent from October’s $304,220 median price and down 2.5 percent from the revised $304,550 median price recorded for the same period a year ago. It was the first year-over-year price decline in a year.

• November’s sales were up 9.2 percent from October’s revised pace of 449,480 but were down 8.6 percent from the revised 536,940 sales pace recorded in November 2009. The statewide sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2010 if sales maintained the November pace throughout the year.

• "Unsold inventory declined slightly in November, as the number of active listings fell from October, particularly for homes priced above $500,000," said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. "The decline in listings was reflective of seasonal factors and the foreclosure moratorium that took place in October."

Market to fair better in 2011

In a recent article in the Desert Sun, Robert Kleinhenz, deputy chief economist for the California Association of Realtors predicted a 2 percent increase in both sales and median prices statewide for 2011. According to Kleinhenz, the main driver in growth for the coming year will derive from favorable mortgage rates and increased affordability.

Another important factor that could effect near term pricing is the current inventory level. In September, statewide inventory under $500,000 continued to be very lean, with inventory in the Coachella Valley standing at 5,969. 

Kleinhenz also predicts foreclosures will continue to have a big impact on the real estate market for three or four more years, with 13,000-15,000 bank-owned properties being added to the inventory statewide every month.

In August bank owned properties and short sales made up 65% of sales in Riverside and San Bernardino counties.

Check out 2010 sale trends below...

Home sales, price trends across the valley

Valleywide one-year sales trend: Down 17 percent

Valleywide two-year sales trend: Flat

Valleywide one-year average price trend: Up 12 percent

Valleywide two-year average price trend: Down 11 percent

Tracking sales, prices

Home sales and price trends by city:

BERMUDA DUNESOne-year sales trend: Up 6 percent

Two-year sales trend: Up 65 percent

One-year price trend: Down 5 percent

Two-year price trend: Down 21 percent

Cathedral CityOne-year sales trend: Down 15 percent

Two-year sales trend: Up 6 percent

One-year price trend: Up 10 percent

Two-year price trend: Down 19 percent

Indian WellsOne-year sales trend: Down 5 percent

Two-year sales trend: Up 60 percent

One-year price trend: Up 2 percent

Two-year price trend: Down 38 percent

Indio ZIP Code 92201One-year sales trend: Down 14 percent

Two-year sales trend: Down 15 percent

One-year price trend: Up 26 percent

Two-year price trend: Down 9 percent

La Quinta ZIP Code 92253One-year sales trend: Down 11 percent

Two-year sales trend: Up 3 percent

One-year price trend: Up 13 percent

Two-year price trend: Down 2 percent

Palm Desert ZIP Code 92211One-year sales trend: Up 4 percent

Two-year sales trend: Up 18 percent

One-year price trend: Down 4 percent

Two-year price trend: Down 24 percent

Palm Springs ZIP Code 92262One-year sales trend: Down 29 percent

Two-year sales trend: Down 12 percent

One-year price trend: Up 5 percent

Two-year price trend: Down 22 percent

Rancho Mirage ZIP Code 92270One-year sales trend: Up 19 percent

Two-year sales trend: Up 23 percent

One-year price trend: Down 14 percent

Two-year price trend: Down 6 percent

Information provided by Real Data Strategies Inc.

California expects mortgage-aid program to begin in weeks

The California Housing Finance Agency (CalHFA) reported this week that its "Keep Your Home California" program will be delayed because of logistical issues with the program. The program was scheduled to begin Monday, Nov. 1.

KEEP THIS IN MIND

• The "Keep Your Home California" program is a $1.83 billion government aid program that will pay down loan balances and provide monthly cash assistance to struggling California homeowners.

• One of the logistical complications that has caused the delay is the fact that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac last week instructed their loan servicers to participate in the program, dramatically increasing the number of potentially eligible homeowners.

• Funded with federal money, the program offers four different types of cash assistance for an estimated 100,000 low- to moderate-income California homeowners. Additionally, eligible borrowers must have endured some sort of loss of income.

• The two primary forms of aid include $875 million dedicated toward unemployed Californians who need help making their monthly payments, and $790 million to be used to directly reduce mortgage loan balances.

• Although the program has been delayed for several weeks, homeowners struggling to make their mortgage payments are advised to not wait for assistance programs to begin before contacting their servicer or lender. Instead, homeowners should begin working with their lender or servicer at the first sign of difficulty.

• More information about the "Keep Your Home California" program can be found at www.keepyourhomecalifornia.org. A toll-free hotline soon will be established.

Read the full story:

http://www.sacbee.com/2010/11/02/3151100/california-expects-mortgage-aid.html

Home ownership headed towards 1995 levels

Home ownership rates in America held steady over the past 2 quarters at 66.9%. At the housing peak in 2004 home ownership hovered around 69% but has been decreasing ever since.

IHS Global Insight economist Patrick Newport states in the Desert Sun the home ownership rate is expected to return pre 1995 levels.

The decrease in home ownership has been due in large part to the increase in foreclosures and tight credit. This could be good news for investors looking to enter the market or increase their market share as the decrease in ownership leads to higher demand for rental property.

Home prices in many areas of the desert are down by 40%-50% from their highs but rental prices have held relatively steady. The decrease in prices has lead to a increase in investors rate of return... leaving a few areas in the valley where investors are getting 10% return on their investment (ex. $1000/month in rent on $100,000 home).

Good sign for the Desert. Resturaunts set up shop.

It's good to see encouraging news from one sector of the local Palm Springs/Palm Desert area economy... Resturaunts.

A few dozen resturaunts have opened or plan to open soon around the Desert. Some of the bigger names are:

• Five Guyes Burgers & Fries - La Quinta
• Biggie's Burgers & More - La Quinta
• Domino's Pizza - La Quinta
• Buffalo Wild Wings - Palm Desert
• Panera - Palm Desert
• Bananaz Tropical Grill - Rancho Mirage
• The Crab Pot - Rancho Mirage

It appears that investors are now beginning to regain confidence in the Valley's hospitality market. We all know it's too early to call this a recovery to the reccession but investors are the first to make a move when they see opportunity or "light at the end of the tunnel"... if these investors are onto something then jobs and economic improvement (very modest) should follow.

Read the entire article at DesertSun.com.

What's next for the Palm Desert Country Club?

A recent article in the Desert Sun reports that the golf course in the Palm Desert Country Club continues to deteriorate due to lack of maintenance. The club has been in Chapter 7 Bankruptcy since July and it is unclear as to when the club will re-open. The club will provide minimal upkeep to the golf course until it re-opens.