Confidence in value of homeownership persists through bust

Despite the decline in home prices, 81 percent of U.S. adults believe buying a home is the best long-term investment a person can make, according to a national survey by the Pew Research Center.
MAKING SENSE OF THE STORY

• Homeownership topped the list of long-term financial goals for Americans, according to the study.  Respondents rated homeownership, as well as living comfortably in retirement, as more important than sending children to college or leaving offspring an inheritance.
• “Owning a home is really a part of the American dream, and that is just part of the American psyche and something that people aspire to,” according to one of the study’s authors.
• Although the vast majority of adults surveyed are in favor of owning a home, the public’s faith in real estate has somewhat declined compared with the last time a comparable survey asked people about the wisdom of investing in real estate.  In the Pew Research Center survey, 37 percent of respondents said they “strongly agree” that homeownership is the best investment a person can make, while 44 percent said they “somewhat agree.”  The same question was asked by a CBS News/New York Times survey in 1981, and at that time, 49 percent “strongly agreed,” and 35 percent “somewhat agreed.”
• While home prices have entered a renewed decline after showing some improvements last year, many economists believe that the worst of the housing crisis is probably over, which could help explain the resiliency in Americans’ optimism.
• Homeowners in the survey were more positive about the financial wisdom of owning a home than were renters.  Among renters, the desire for homeownership remains strong.  According to the survey’s findings, 24 percent of renters surveyed said they rent out of choice and 81 percent said they would like to buy.

California home sales rose, median price fell in January

California home sales rose in January, marking three consecutive monthly increases and posting their highest level since May 2010, while the statewide median price declined to its lowest level since June 2009, according to data C.A.R. 

“With lower home prices and rates edging up from their historic lows of late last year, prospective home buyers should consider the opportunities in today’s market,” said C.A.R. President Beth L. Peerce.

California home sales rose 5.1 percent in January compared with December, to a revised pace of 520,080 units.  Sales also increased 2.5 percent in year-over-year comparisons, marking the first year-over-year sales increase since May 2010.  The statewide sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2011 if sales maintained the January pace throughout the year.  It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.
The statewide median price of an existing, single-family detached home sold in California was $278,900, down 8.6 percent from a revised $305,020 in December and was down 2.0 percent from the $284,600 median price recorded for January 2010.  The January 2011 median price was the lowest since June 2009, when it was $274,640.

Obama administration releases recommendations on future of GSEs

The White House recently released recommendations to phase out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.  C.A.R. says the elimination of government involvement would raise borrowing costs for home buyers and severely restrict a safe and affordable flow of financing, further impeding the still-fragile housing market recovery.

C.A.R., along with NAR, believes that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) should be converted into government-chartered, non-profit corporations.  Such an entity would ensure government’s role in a stable real estate finance system, while eliminating the conflict created by the GSE’s current charter allowing for a private profit and public loss structure.  With a clear explicit guarantee by the government, these entities would continue to be able to offer low interest rate loans onto home buyers and assure investor confidence.

The White House’s proposal also recommends allowing the maximum loan limit to drop back to $625,500 in high cost areas, further hampering California’s housing recovery.  Analysis by C.A.R. shows that a reduction in the conforming loan limit to $625,500 would render a percentage of home sales ineligible. To see the analysis, and C.A.R.’s recommendations on the GSE reform and loan limits, visit http://www.car.org/newsstand/newsreleases/gsefuture/

Wells Fargo lowers credit score requirement for FHA mortgages

Wells Fargo recently announced that effective Jan. 15, 2011, it will accept FHA-insured mortgages for borrowers with credit scores as low as 500.  For borrowers with credit scores ranging from 500 to 579, a 10 percent down payment is required, and the down payment may not be a gift or be part of a down payment assistance program.  Borrowers with credit scores of 580 to 599 are required to put down 5 percent, and the down payment may not be a gift or part of a down payment assistance program. Borrowers with a credit score of 600 or higher are required to have a 3.5 percent down payment, and a gift is acceptable.  For all borrowers, seller concessions are limited to 3 percent.

Real Estate: Finally a good investment?

The housing market still looks pretty bleak:  There were a record 1 million foreclosures last year, home prices are still falling in many regions, and the number of "underwater" properties is at a record high.

And things don't look much better in other areas of real estate. The number of construction jobs continues to decline, even as other parts of the economy have added jobs. And mortgage rates have moved higher as long-term Treasury yields have backed up during the past few months.

Basically, the real estate market remains a mess.

Real estate encompasses a wide range of markets – homes, apartments, hospitals, office buildings, strip malls, dormitories and other properties. But for our purposes, let's focus on residential real estate, or homes. Here are four reasons to think residential real estate might represent a bargain – with one big caveat.


Keep in Mind:


• Everyone hates homes - When the housing market is in the doldrums, people tend to avoid thinking about the value of their home.  Sellers complain they’re not getting offers and buyers bemoan the strict lending requirements.  However, prospective buyers should be contrarian and take advantage of a down housing market.
• Smart people are buying real estate - A prominent hedge-fund manager said in a speech last fall:  “If you don’t own a home, buy one.  If you own a home, buy another one, and if you own two homes, buy a third and lend your relatives the money to buy a home.”  He believes that interest rates and home prices will rise this year, so real estate bargains won’t last much longer.
• Real estate performs well during inflation – Convention says Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, commodities, and real estate do well in an inflationary environment.  Real estate performed well during the period in the 1970s, when persistent inflation and high unemployment occurred.
• Demand may be coming back - Job creation and getting people employed are the two major factors in the housing rebound.  There’s much debate about when the job market will recovery.  Optimists say the recovery will happen this year, while pessimists say it won’t happen for several years.

Read the full story

http://www.smartmoney.com/personal-finance/real-estate/-1295050347411/

When will housing come back in California? Five experts offer their views

Although the steep decline of home prices in California ended in spring 2009, the weakness in the housing market after the expiration of federal tax credits for home buyers last year has led to some speculation as to whether the recovery is sustainable. Five experts, including Leslie Appleton-Young, the chief economist for the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®, were asked to provide their view on the state of real estate and what they think is needed to get the housing market moving again.

KEEP THIS IN MIND

• In terms of home prices, the experts differed slightly with the majority predicting that home prices will remain flat throughout 2011. Ms. Appleton-Young predicts home prices will rise 2 percent this year, while a foreclosure expert predicts housing prices to decline 5 percent in 2011.

• According to Ms. Appleton-Young, there is little chance of home prices returning to their previous peak levels anytime soon. "We are in a slow-moving recovery with prices stabilized at the moderate and low end," she said. "We are still seeing price attrition and price softening at the upper ends of the market."

• California’s recovery will hinge on location, according to Richard Green, director of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate. Areas between El Centro and Sacramento likely will not see a return to peak prices for a long time. However, places like La Jolla, Laguna, Huntington Beach, Atherton, Palo Alto, the city of San Francisco, and Marin County could experience a return to their peak prices within the next five years, according to Mr. Green.

• Foreclosure expert Bruce Norris of the Norris Group believes the market is being artificially boosted by government programs and is set to fall further this year. Mr. Norris believes the demand for housing is most-needed for a sustainable recovery.

• California’s coastal markets will make a return once the job market improves, according to Emile Haddad, chief executive at FivePoint Communities Inc. In turn, that will lift consumer confidence. However, California’s inland areas are more likely to lag behind, and builders will have to reconsider the kind of product they offer in certain places.

November Home Sales Rose in California

California home sales rose in November compared with October, but were down from the previous year, according to data from the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS. The statewide median price declined from both the previous month and previous year.

KEEP THIS IN MIND

• The median price of an existing, single-family detached home sold in California fell below the $300,000 mark for the first time since February. The November 2010 median price was $296,820, down 2.4 percent from October’s $304,220 median price and down 2.5 percent from the revised $304,550 median price recorded for the same period a year ago. It was the first year-over-year price decline in a year.

• November’s sales were up 9.2 percent from October’s revised pace of 449,480 but were down 8.6 percent from the revised 536,940 sales pace recorded in November 2009. The statewide sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2010 if sales maintained the November pace throughout the year.

• "Unsold inventory declined slightly in November, as the number of active listings fell from October, particularly for homes priced above $500,000," said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. "The decline in listings was reflective of seasonal factors and the foreclosure moratorium that took place in October."